Hypothetical Sudden Death
What if Assad meets his end suddenly to be replaced by his brother Maher?
Hypothesizing is a form of “what if?” scenarios many in the intelligence and security business around the world engage in to fully understand their best options. On a chessboard, it is equivalent to exploring the possibilities of the next nine moves of your opponent to better gauge his strengths and weaknesses.
One such scenario is a direct strike against Assad himself, which today, in our opinion, is on the table should Assad continue to not fully grasp his limitations. Part of the misconception of understanding one’s limitations revolves around spreading danger well beyond the capacity for Arab and non-Arab nations to accept.
There is a point at which nations will choose to target people rather than armies, weapons, or strategies. Bin Laden, Zakaria, Mughnieyeh and Nasrallah (To this day, Nasrallah remains in hiding after the 2006 war with Israel) have reached that point and Assad is on the brink not only because Maher, his brother, is his safety valve and an acceptable replacement part but because Assad has no concept of Syria’s political and strategic limitations within the space of the interests of other nations.
Assad has been giving back his wings to fly the moment the US and France engaged with his terror regime. This was no accident. But instead of flying to play the Useful Idiot role his father played brilliantly (i.e. an Arab dictator useful idiot is when Kissinger compliments you in his book), he is occupying, dangerously, other nations’ airspace. RPS sense is that red flags are popping like popcorn at the NSC.
Furthermore, the non-confrontational Saudis may seek realignment with patience but the Egyptians, and now the west, are not willing to accept Assad in his new morphed state.
What to expect of Maher if he becomes the new Syrian president?
Maher is known in Syria to be more a Makhluf than an Assad (brilliantly violent but not violently brilliant). As head of the seasoned Syrian Republican Guards (The Ba’athist Maginot Line), Maher will rule with the same iron fist but will also grasp his limitations with the help of his sister Bushra who is better suited, having inherited her father’s traits, to wear his shoes.
Maher will also re-calibrate the vision Syria has with Iran and Turkey. The new larger axis of resistance, involving Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq with Syria and Iran will dissolve into a more manageable alliance less threatening to western interests. Buthaina Shaaban statement, after Syria signed 50 technical and economic agreements with Turkey, has unleashed, in our opinion, all the “What if” scenarios.
Whether Assad or anyone else in Syria is aware of tripping the wire is unknown so far. But today’s public US threat in regard to Syrian training Hezbollah on its soil for the use of SA-2 missiles cannot be any clearer. Assad has become the most dangerous man in the Middle East, one year after the Obama administration engaged with him openly. He was asked to be a referee in a more peaceful vision of the region but instead he is rigging the games by playing referee, coach, owner, and broadcaster. Some believe that Baschar’s sudden departure may be the best insurance policy the west can buy to recalibrate Iran’s threats in the region.
