Ideologues Lurking or Realists Jumping Ship?
A story published by Khaled Abu Toameh in the Jerusalem Post highlights the possibility that the Israeli intelligence may have infiltrated Hamas and the Syrian security apparatus as questions linger about the mysterious killing of a top Hamas operative in Dubai some two weeks ago.
When it comes to recruiting for the services of a high intelligence officer in Syria, or anywhere else for that matter, the reasons are not many. One either does it for money, ideology, or because you know the ship is sinking and you are hedging your bet.
In Syria, the top intelligence officers are all Alawites protecting the state from the takeover by a Sunni majority. For those who do not know Syria, the Alawites are a minority representing about 10-12% of the population known for their secularity, respect for women, and openness as compared to the Muslim religious extremists in that part of the world.
But the Alawites few who control the Syrian state are also thugs, killers, and men who are corrupt to their core. Over the last 45 years, they succeeded in the largest transfer of wealth in the region by insuring that the men entrusted with the highest state secrets are also the richest and the most powerful. So sharing their secrets with Israel for money is an option with little credulity.
In terms of ideology, there are some commonalities between the Alawites and the Jews of Israel. Both are minorities who are oppressed by the Muslim majority in the region and both, like the Christians, are continuously trying to survive the colorless odor of Islamic expansionism. But an Alawite will not side with a Jew to the detriment of his own people unless he or she knows that the policies of the Syrian government, in protecting Hamas, an extremist Sunni group, is not in the best interests of his own people. There is a chance that the rat is an ideologue.
However, the highest chance for becoming a high-value Syrian informant for Israel is by far to hedge one’s bet. RPS knows this because, as a dissident group, we remain involved in penetrating the thick walls of Damascus by talking to and recruiting informants inside the system, the absolute majority of which do it to hedge their bets just in case the regime falters and these men and women have to answer, one day, to a higher legal authority.
But it is one thing to pass information to Syrians than to work for Israelis. A Syrian informant will lose his liberty if he talks to RPS but will lose his life if he talks to Israel. Which leads us to the argument that the ship must be really sinking either through outside forces or from within for any informant to find the courage and run the risk of passing information to the Israelis
There is also the possibility that the informant is unaware the information he has shared, with a third-party, is also landing on Dagan’s desk. Today, he is. But we believe that running this risk, by a third-party recipient, thus wasting the source for one kill, is highly unlikely.
Whether the informant is an ideologue who believes Hamas is too dangerous to help or whether he is hedging his bets because he is watching, in slow motion, the nearing deadly storm, Assad may be facing an internal dissent to his policies or facing total defeat.
There is also this weird theory that lingers. RPS reported few days ago that Assad himself may have delivered al-Mabhuh in return for the US Ambassador to be named to Damascus. If true, planting an article to point to an insider job is the kind of work intelligence services are accustomed to doing in order to save their sources or in this instance Assad himself.
